The rapid changes in the political situation in Nepal in last few months are a matter of great anxiety to some and a great appreciation to many. The defeat of Maoists in the national election by huge margin is a matter that has heated many national debates. There is rise in activities of Nepalese Army, Royalists and Nepalese outside of United States.
The geo-political scenario with competition for power between two giants India and China also makes recent developments important. While the power-base was tilted more towards China with Maoists in power, things have changed with the recent developments. India is once again seeking its presence through its old connections with political leaders.
What happens now is a matter of great anticipation and many are looking for just that. Several political scientists have been observing the scenario with great interest and we all are too. Nepal has been going through a very unique situation in many years. This is a situation of absence of leadership, a totally different situation that the country hasn’t seen since its unification by Prithvi Narayan Shah. Many people are asking them, where is the leader?
This situation of ambiguity has always given rise to a new force in the history of the world. Even in Nepal, such a situation has given rise to King Prithivi Narayan Shah, Janga Bahadur Rana, King Mahendra and Prachanda. Now that Prachanda literally has gone to sleep for many different reasons, there a vacant space for this strong leader that never goes unfulfilled. So, who is he going to be is the question rather than whether there will be.
There’s none such leader in Congress, CPN-UML or Maoists in current politics. Kamal Thapa of RPP-Nepal has such potential but still lacks power to execute it. So, where is this person going to come from? King Gyanendra is still unpopular to make this happen. It is very much possible that this individual is going to rise from outside of the contemporary politics like the rise of Bibeksil Nepali party that contained folks that went back to Nepal after many years abroad.
At this period of time, Nepal has some very special folks outside of the country. With the growing Nepalese population out of Nepal, these NRNs have connections far beyond the comprehension of Nepalese political leaders. Some of the NRNs have alliance with diplomats from all around the world and are in close touch with world leaders than Nepalese President/Prime-minister of last few years. This special situation has shifted the power balance causing NRN community more powerful than the influence of Nepalese government itself among Nepalese community.
We are yet to see what all of this means in the context of Nepalese politics and future of Nepal. However, all this points out to a future very different from the one we have experienced as Nepalese citizens in the past. The country has outgrown its own system. All the past political systems have failed in front of the citizens that have outgrown its education, politics and economy. The only next political system will work that will not only accommodate the Nepalese population residing in Nepal but the large number of Nepalese outside of Nepal that actually run Nepal through the remittances, influence and leadership.
This fact might be little indigestible by Nepalese political leaders but majority of Nepalese affairs are currently run by Nepalese citizens outside of Nepal directly or indirectly. This had never happened before in the history of Nepal. King Birendra was the most educated Kings till his time but there are hundreds of Nepalese citizens at this period that have been educated more at Harvard and other famous universities. So, to think of Nepal in the context of the poor past and lack of worthy leaders would be faulty. There are many Nepalese citizens currently outside Nepal that can govern the country far better than past prime-ministers, Kings and Prachanda himself. The only question is, will they consider governing Nepal worthy of them?
We are living in a very interesting time if we observe the events closely. Maoists have considerably lost their power and influence. Political leaders know nothing but to talk. The status-quo will remain until someone decides to take an action. One question that always hits my mind at this moment is who is the leader of Nepal? Who represents the country?
There is no possibility of writing of the constitution in next two years with the way it’s going. Only alternative is a rise of a new responsible power that can break this situation, punish the evil-doers and get things done including the drafting of the constitution. This might not possibly happen without the co-operation of Nepalese security forces including the Nepalese Army. The next leader is definitely going to need to make some strong decisions if the current problem is to be solved. This might even include bringing some of the prominent leaders of Maoists to justice and punish them in order to establish the rule of law. People need to know that there is a government that can punish the criminals justly. Without such faith of public, how can anyone draft a constitution that is executed for hundreds of years?
It is yet to see what the ultimate director of the universe has in store for Nepal and Maoists. Some of the developments in last few weeks signify to a very different scenario in Nepalese society. Court’s verdict on Maoist leaders, major community leaders pointing out to bring Prachanda and Baburam to justice and KP Oli’s rise in CPN-UML are among the few events besides a huge political action that’s taking place from outside Nepal. For now, all we can do is see where all this is taking us and our country. If the time comes when we need to take action and do our respective duty in this regard, we must stay ready and obey the voice of Almighty.